BREAKING NEWS: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1 FORMS

After days of watching, Invest 93 L has finally become a Tropical Depression! We do expect this storm to become Hurricane Alex in the next 24 hours. Let’s check out the latest satellite image:

It’s huge isn’t it? Now lets find out where this mess is going to go!

[Image of 5-day forecast and coastal areas under a warning or a watch]

It looks like this is headed towards the Texas coast, but that can change. Tropical Storm warnings are currently in place for Cancun and areas around it. Here are the wind forcasts:

[Table of probable wind speed intensity range]

According to the graph, Tropical Storm Alex will form and strengthen until it reaches the Yucatan Peninsula. As it passes through, it will become weaker. However it should restrengthen as it enters the Gulf of Mexico. As for this storm and the Oil Spill, there really isn’t too much info, but we will keep you updated.

Thanks to the NHC for all of the information.

-Hurrikane Admin

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Just In – Invest 93L Has A 60% Chance Of Forming

We have been keeping our eyes on the Caribbean lately for some possible Tropical Cyclone development. Today at the 8PM update, the National Hurricane Center upgraded this system’s chances of forming (in the next 48 hours) to 60%. Let’s check it out.

TC Activity

Here is the statement:

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU JUN 24 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED BETWEEN THE EASTERN TIP OF HONDURAS
AND JAMAICA HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED THIS EVENING. SURFACE
PRESSURES HAVE BEEN FALLING IN THE AREA AND THERE HAS BEEN AN
INCREASE IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY.  UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE GRADUALLY
BECOMING MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND THE SYSTEM COULD BECOME
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BEFORE IT REACHES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN A
COUPLE OF DAYS.  THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/BLAKE
NNNN

Latest satellite imagery:

This is definitely something to keep an eye on. Stay tuned into Hurrikane for the latest!

-Admin

Post credit: NHC.NOAA.GOV

Possible Tropical Cyclone Development In Western Caribbean

There is an area of interest in the Caribbean, and it could become this year’s first named storm, Alex. The National Hurricane Center is giving this storm a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression in the next 48 hours. Here is a satellite image of this potential tropical cyclone:

Now lets check out some spaghetti models:

Here is a description of the storm from the NHC at their 2 PM update:

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT WED JUN 23 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. AN ELONGATED AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER EXTENDS FROM EASTERN CUBA AND
JAMAICA EASTWARD ACROSS HISPANIOLA TO PUERTO RICO AND THE ADJACENT
WATERS OF THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM TODAY WAS CANCELED DUE TO LACK
OF ORGANIZATION OF THIS DISTURBANCE. HOWEVER...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
STILL APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND 10 MPH OVER THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO. HEAVY RAINFALL COULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF JAMAICA...
CUBA...HAITI...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND PUERTO RICO OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/CANGIALOSI
NNNN

We will keep you updated.

-Hurrikane Admin

Post Sources - NHC.NOAA.GOV and WEATHERUNDERGROUND.COM