Possible Tropical Cyclone Development In Western Caribbean

There is an area of interest in the Caribbean, and it could become this year’s first named storm, Alex. The National Hurricane Center is giving this storm a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression in the next 48 hours. Here is a satellite image of this potential tropical cyclone:

Now lets check out some spaghetti models:

Here is a description of the storm from the NHC at their 2 PM update:

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT WED JUN 23 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. AN ELONGATED AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER EXTENDS FROM EASTERN CUBA AND
JAMAICA EASTWARD ACROSS HISPANIOLA TO PUERTO RICO AND THE ADJACENT
WATERS OF THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM TODAY WAS CANCELED DUE TO LACK
OF ORGANIZATION OF THIS DISTURBANCE. HOWEVER...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
STILL APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND 10 MPH OVER THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO. HEAVY RAINFALL COULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF JAMAICA...
CUBA...HAITI...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND PUERTO RICO OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/CANGIALOSI
NNNN

We will keep you updated.

-Hurrikane Admin

Post Sources - NHC.NOAA.GOV and WEATHERUNDERGROUND.COM
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